Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Wednesday Weather Analysis - MWE

  • Air temp: 68-72
  • Water temp: 66 degrees
  • Wind type: Breeze (SE -> SW)
  • Breeze Type: Gradient mixing with and possibly becoming Sea Breeze
  • Pressure System: High Dominant

The Stability Index result is High Pressure (3), Gradient or Sea Breeze (1 or 2), Air Warmer than Water (3), which is a score of 7 or 8. Here's the info we get from that:

Gradient Breeze (score 7)
  • Expect modest & unpredictable changes in direction w/ little change in speed
  • If some regular veers or backs occur expect them to break into irregularity - stay defensive
Sea Breeze (score 8)
  • Expect uniform wind speed
  • Expect pattern to be predictable
How do you tell which we have? The easiest way to tell is to look for gusts. If there are significant puffs and lulls you are not in a sea breeze. If there are some puffs and you think it could be a sea breeze, it could just be the effect of land to weather of the course. Remember, land within 2 miles of your location affects your breeze.

The gradient breeze should be on the steadier end of the spectrum. Because of that direction is likely to be king. Make sure you have good compass numbers, including a mean number. Once the breeze crosses that mean number you should go the other way. Oscillations are typically 20-60 minutes long, meaning it can appear as a persistent shift on a windward leg.

The sea breeze will have much quicker oscillations, typically 2-6 minutes. They will be patterned and can be predictable. Doing well in a sea breeze is the combination of boat speed and going the right direction all the time. If the breeze seems to settle in around 210 it could be the sea breeze. It will veer as the sea breeze matures, and can go as far as 255, maybe more.

If we are within 2 miles of shore, watch for the breeze to square to the shore as you get closer to it.

It looks like a great day for sailing and hopefully 3 solid races in great Thistlin' breeze. Good luck to everyone and please let us know if we can help.

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