Sunday, March 1, 2015

MWE - Day 1 Weather Expectations

MWE Monday - Race Day 1 Weather Forecast and Expectations

  • Air temp: 64-70
  • Water temp: 66 degrees
  • Wind type: Breeze or Light Air (likely to be right on the edge) NE -> NW
  • Breeze Type: Gradient
  • Pressure System: Straight Isobars

The result is Straight Isobars (2), Gradient (1), Air Similar to Water (2), which is a score of 5. That score says: 
  • Expect modest & unpredictable changes in direction & speed
  • If it's light air and not breeze sail for pressure not direction
  • If some regular veers or backs occur expect them to break into irregularity - stay defensive
It looks like a light day on Tampa Bay. The biggest takeaway from the forecast is that pressure will likely be key. Much rather go a worse direction but with a lot more breeze. The St Pete info doesn't give anything solid other than that it's likely to slowly die, so focus on pressure and keeping clear air.

I wouldn't be surprised to see little or no breeze even early in the morning. Hopefully we get one race in. It will be tough for the sea breeze to kick, especially with the forecast for clouds in the afternoon. I wish we had something more concrete but it looks like we may later in the week. Sometimes it's just good to know not to expect anything normal.

Sail fast and good luck to everyone!

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