Tampa Bay Weather Forecast Feb 20

Here's the data and expectation for day 1 at J24 Midwinters.  We sail in the area to the north of the Thistle MWE course area, so the geographic and current effects are a bit different.

February 20

• Air temp: high 59
• Water temp: 64 degrees
• Wind type: Breeze (10-15)
• Breeze Type: Gradient
• Pressure System: High Pressure

The result is High Pressure (3), Gradient (1), Air Cooler than Water (1), which is a score of 5. That score says:

• If air colder than water expect modest & unpredictable changes in direction & speed

Our takeaway from this is to sail for pressure, but take advantage of shifts of 15 degrees or more. We will always be within 2 miles of shore so if sunny, gusts will be harsher and more irregular. This could create situations where tacking more often, even in a slow-tacking boat like a J24, is more advantageous. Here's our bullet points of expectations to go with the matrix output:

• Expect unsteadiness in wind speed
• Expect local differences in speed across the course
• Little predictability in oscillations
• Boats who sail for more pressure typically win 
• Continuous short-term unsteadiness in direction superimposed on long term oscillations
• Look for changes in wind speed - this is where the advantage is
• Do not believe if a shift seems persistent over an entire leg...likely just too long of an oscillation to go back on that leg
• Can recover from a gamble gone bad by using short term shifts

I'll update tomorrow evening to see how it actually played out.