Tampa Bay Weather Analysis - Feb 21 Review & Feb 22 expectations

Here was the expected weather for today:

The result is High Pressure (3), Gradient and/or Sea Breeze (1 or 2), Air Warmer than Water (3), which is a score of 6 or 7. Those scores say for our expected conditions:

• If air warmer than water expect modest & unpredictable changes in direction w/ little change in speed
• If some regular veers or backs occur expect them to break into irregularity - stay defensive

The breeze was much, much more consistent in speed and direction today. We had a heated land surface to windward so there were still puffs and lulls, but the shifts were much smaller and there were not small rapid oscillations on top of the bigger and longer oscillations. This is because the air temperature was warmer than the water and cooled the breeze.

The breeze started from the NE, but in a period of 10 minutes shifted to SE.

We had a tough day, but a lot of people struggled. It was very difficult to figure out which way to go, but both sides paid at times. While the matrix said direction would be king, the windward land caused gusts and lulls that made finding the pressure equally important. Overall the forecast was pretty good for knowing what to expect.

February 22 Forecast and Expectations

• Air temp: 70-76
• Water temp: 64 degrees
• Wind type: Breeze or Light Air (4-11)
• Breeze Type: Gradient
• Pressure System: High Pressure

The result is High Pressure (3), Gradient (1), Air Warmer than Water (1), which is a score of 7. That score says: 

• If air warmer than water expect modest & unpredictable changes in direction w/ little change in speed
• If some regular veers or backs occur expect them to break into irregularity - stay defensive

With the direction forecasted to be SE going to SW, we have a good chance of having at least 2 miles of runway over water, so the expectations should be more likely to be accurate without the influence of land.  Breeze from this direction in St. Pete typically have long oscillation frequency and puffs typically veer (shift right).

If it blows less than 6 knots, the forecast doesn't apply because you are sailing in Light Air, not Breeze.  In that case, sail for pressure always at the expense of direction.  And you want a lot more twist in your sails.  

This is the last forecast before MWE, but I'll follow up with a recap of the results for this one tomorrow.  We have some great content coming up in the next week leading up to MWE.